I decided to test this hypothesis by estimating American IQ in 2050. At that time, or more precisely in 2042, whites w
ill no longer constitute the majority. While liberals celebrate the "beiging" of America, HBDers apprehensively await lower average intelligence and more potent racialism. Eugenics being a popular HBD topic, I decided to estimate the IQ impact of such initiatives, like sterilization of welfare recipients and criminals.First, I used recent predictions from the US Census Bureau to estimate future IQ. I will use this value as a baseline to compare my estimates. From the 2050 Census predictions, where Hispanics comprise 30% of the population, the average IQ will be approximately 95.9. However, this doesn't account for dsygenic trends because the predictions, obviously, don't break up birth cohorts by intelligence. Nonetheless, it provides a reasonable standard. I calculated a simple weighted average to obtain the number, assuming the standard 85, 92, 100, 104 IQ averages.
Next, I found the birth and death rates for non-Hispanic whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. The relevant data can be found here and here. Death rate data is from here and here. I assumed birth and death rates are constant until 2050. Applying a recursive formula, I obtained these approximate racial demographics of 2050, with Census predictions in parantheses:
- Non-Hispanic Whites: 53% (46)
- Blacks: 13.5% (15)
- Asians: 6.7% (9)
- Hispanics: 27% (30)
My algorithm predicts a US 2050 population of 406 million, close to the 439 million stated by the Census Bureau. Of course, theirs would include immigration and possibly other subtle variables.
Using the same weighted average and an Asian IQ of 105 (due to my suggestion of allowing only high-IQ Asian immigration), I obtained an approximation of America's 2050 IQ. I estimate America's 2050 IQ will be 96.2, given the enactment of moderate eugenic measures and Hispanic-origin immigration restrictions. This is almost identical to the 95.9 value gauged from the Census Bureau data.
What was the main driving force behind these results? It's not blacks or immigration of low-IQ Mexicans. The problem is already upon us, a rapidly growing Hispanic population currently residing here. Hispanics have a fertility rate of 2.3, while no other racial group has fertility rates above 2, the bar to increase population. Due to this boon of American-born Hispanic babies, they will make up about 27% of the population, even without large scale immigration. Also, recall that my estimates don't include the dsygenic effects of IQ redistribution. This makes the situation more bleak.
It seems as though the eugenic measures estimated here, including halting Hispanic immigration, sterilization of criminals and welfare queens, and importing high-IQ Asians, do little to counterbalance Hispanic fecundity. Will we do anything about it? Human biodiversity and racial intelligence differences must become mainstream to support any intervention schemes. Advances in genetic engineering may be the best solution. And please don't suggest we just sterilize all the Mexicans.
However, I found a much lower dsygenic trend than I had thought. The decrease in average IQ is on the order of about 1 to 2 points. This will have important implications for the upper tail, but not the apocalyptic scenario many predict. In my opinion, the far greater effect will be political and social enmity, resulting from racial power structures and genetically-derived cultural differences.
Note: Flynn effect hasn't been observed since the early 1990's in developed countries, so that's not going to help.
25 comments:
"Advances in genetic engineering may be the best solution. And please don't suggest we just sterilize all the Mexicans."
It is amusing how HBD tends to lapse into egalitarian liberalism as it advocates genetic leveling. Would not this process be self-defeating since all groups would demand similar advancement?
What if the "genetic" solution involves taking alleles from whites or Jews or asians and sticking them into the chromosomes of blacks and hispanics?
I wonder how people will react?
Anyway, I agree it will not be a disaster. Hispanics are unruly but per capita they cause nowhere near the problems caused by blacks. I suppose we should look for a growing problem with drunk driving.
Just import Asians. That will improve everything in a very short amount of time. Genetic engineering then may not even be needed.
Enough with Asians! They bring their own problems. Reading these blogs you'd think half of HBDers are asian supremacists.
I will take America in 1950 over Hong Kong any day.
America is NOT going back to the 1950s. For that it would have to start valueing marriage and family again - not gonna happen.
(can't teach an old dog new old tricks)
But it COULD POSSIBLY resemble 1950 to some degree if quality, smart people who value family, education, financial planning and hard work are imported - like Asians.
No need to reinvent the wheel when there is already a wheel out there spinning.
Seeing their success, other Americans may decide to jump on board, if they are capable of such discipline that is.
Anything is possible but I wouldn't put money down on it.
"For that it would have to start valueing marriage and family again - not gonna happen."
After the US breaks up and government and the media can't actively work against white people through brainwashing and social policy, I can see that happening in a number of red states.
I'd rather move to Latin America and live like a king in a white enclave than live my present middle class life amongst asians. They are like ants.
"They are like ants."
Busy and industrious?
Check.
Your estimate for average Hispanic IQ assume a population of average intelligence Hispanics. Many who leave their country of origin are among the lower IQ in their group which is part of the reason they can't figure out how to prosper in their nation. Illegal immigrants are especially at the lower end of the Hispanic IQ curve.
During the disastrous reign of Bush the Inferior, the absolute number of Hispanics increased by about 1.3 million per year.
However, this growth could be halted even without stopping legal immigration.
If the border were walled off, 500,000 illegal Hispanics would not enter America.
And if we deport all illegal aliens of child rearing age from the US, there will be around 400,000-500,000 fewer anchor babies in the US.
So, we could reduce Hispanic population growth - again, without stopping legal immigration - from 1.3 million to 0.3 or 0.4 million per year.
The recession and increased enforcement appears to have already hit Hispanic fertility in Arizona.
In 2008, births to Hispanics in Arizona fell by 3,000 while white births fell by 300 compared to 2007.
And this year Arizona is on track to see a decrease in Hispanic births again.
Links:
Arizona Births 2008
Arizona Births 2009
Advance Vital Statistics
2007
Latinos: 45,731
Whites: 42,216
2008
Latinos: 42,639
Whites: 41,925
"Your estimate for average Hispanic IQ assume a population of average intelligence Hispanics. Many who leave their country of origin are among the lower IQ in their group"
My algorithm assumed absolutely ZERO Hispanic immigration after 2005 (the year when data was last available for birth and death rates). You're correct that much of the Hispanic population now is of lower IQ. I could have accounted for this by approximating some amount of dsygenic IQ decrease per generation, but it would only be guessing. It would have made an almost trivial difference anyway. Maybe half a point lower.
As I explained(sorta) on Parapundit, even if the US were to keep its current competitiveness and standard of living, in 2050 or whenever, we would look substandard to burgeoning coastal Chinese states. Racist, conformist, commie China with better education, superior colleges, less crime, less dysfunction in comparison with "democratic" USA. Should put a heavy damper on liberal losers.
Eugenics was the Golden Snitch for America in the 1910s. We let it go by giving into fear and moralizers.
Who cares if America looses its prestige. I feel no loyalty to its failed ideals(rewritten history and slogans by suburban sixties dullards)or its population. Pedro cant do Algebra? Why should I care? I don't. Half of our STEM graduates are foreign.
HBD doesn't have a purpose. Technology does not exist to transform black children into superstars .
You seem to have an overzealous goal to convince us America will end if everyone does not know RIGHT NOW that African people are dangerous. It would be rude to tell people they’re wrong and then not give them any options.
The only thing I believe will tear apart America is its unstable debt and lack of jobs(especially the good jobs Bill Gates thinks is cute to give to Sanjay or Vlad at half the price) or possibly an attempt by old stock whites to carve up new states.
"You seem to have an overzealous goal to convince us America will end if everyone does not know RIGHT NOW that African people are dangerous."
Have any evidence of this rather bombastic statement?
Here's the foundation of my blog:
http://onestdv.blogspot.com/2009/06/pro-white.html
Tell me if that fits what you contend I say.
And I'm not really concerned with America's prestige, I'm concerned with its continued and prosperous existence. The stuff I write about matters to that end.
Nice Analysis, but I would not rule out disaster and I would assume stagnation: the means do not change much but the distribution changes quite a bit in the tails. Using your results, I estimate that the number of the retarded people (IQ < 70) increases 90% from 10 to 19 million while the number of geniuses (IQ > 130) actually decreases by 7% from 7.4 vs. 7.9 million. Let’s hope that Flynn effect is true.
So you can check my math, in R:
mean1_96.5
mean2_99
SD_16
p1.tard.future_406*pnorm(70,mean1,SD)
p2.tard.now_300*pnorm(70,mean2,SD)
tard.change_(p1.tard.future-p2.tard.now)/p2.tard.now
print(c(p1.tard.future,p2.tard.now,tard.change))
p1.smart.future_406*(1-pnorm(130,mean1,SD))
p2.smart.now_300*(1-pnorm(130,mean2,SD))
smart.change_(p1.smart.future-p2.smart.now)/p2.smart.now
print(c(p1.smart.future,p2.smart.now,smart.change))
Fine, fine.
Prediction:Latino immigration will subside and immigration from other third world areas; Africa and South Asia, will increase. Remember the Tsunami killing hundreds of thousands in coastal cities on the Indian Ocean? Rising sea levels will create a refugee problem in Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. Also more Iraqi refuges.
@ Statsquatch:
I mentioned the tails, but thanks for actually getting the numbers. That's pretty scary.
I have no idea what the code means, is it in Fortran? I only have moderate fluency in MATLAB and the most basic knowledge of JAVA. So I can't double check that work.
I don't understand the mean and STDV numbers you used. I didn't create a big normal distribution to obtain my estimation, I just used a simple weighted average so I never had to use STDV.
Where did the 99 come from?
Anyway, your results look plausible and might qualify my statement about dsygenics not being that big a deal. Society progresses primarily through the 130 and up crowd and regresses primarily through the actions of the 70 and lower crowd.
However, I still believe that social dynamics will prove more influential than dsygenic fertility.
Onestdv,
I assumed the current mean IQ is 99(I got this from Lynn's world wide IQ book) and the current sd is 16 (which some SAT-IQ conversion tables use). Then I just used your estimate of 96.5 and the same SD. I thought these were reasonable but other numbers will give similar results.
I actually worry more about the retards. They are cute when they are little but expensive in the long run. Ethinic conflict is always a concern though.
The code is from a stat package called R which is more or less equivalent to S+.
Advances in genetic engineering may be the best solution. And please don't suggest we just sterilize all the Mexicans.
Advances in genetic engineering aren't going to cut it. It's not going to be ready in any reasonable amount of time (if you ignore computer geek transhumanists who have no idea what they're talking about and just listen to people in the field, you'll find few, if any, people who believe that it will). We are still trying to figure out what genes are involved in intelligence, which is harder than it sounds, and putting those genes in a human is also no trivial task.
Even if it does become technically possible, it's unlikely that many people will take advantage of it, particularly among the low-IQ population. Are they really going to go to a genetic clinic and have a modified blastocyst implanted in their uteri instead of having babies the old-fashioned way?
Would they even want themselves or their children to change so much? To them, it would be probably be like being replaced by the pod people from Invasion of the Body Snatchers. If they could choose traits, they would probably choose charisma and looks over intelligence. And - guess what - women can choose traits, by selecting which guy can fertilize their eggs, and that's what the do pick, which is why we have a dysgenic trend in the first place.
Forget about technological magic wands. What you have really found here is that, at this point, there's no way for America to reconcile modern liberal democracy with avoiding becoming a dysgenic, balkanized hellhole.
>What you have really found here is that, at this point, there's no way for America to reconcile modern liberal democracy with avoiding becoming a dysgenic, balkanized hellhole.
7/27/2009 12:04 AM
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Yep.
Historically, we [Euros] keep alive too many low males. They conspire en masse against the higher males, cause of envy/instinctual fear of sexual marginalization. (Simple alpha beta gamma chimp stuff.)
The low win, through techno snowball's straws on the camel's back.
The females achieve trump card leverage through that low male victory ('cause low males don't trigger females [into submission] properly and cause the low and now the high use females as grenades/tools in their male vs male battles, further leveraging fems).
Once the females and runts are the THING, all else bad /off /un thought through is just a matter of time. ('Cause the low and _the females_ CAN'T THINK --and the females are the root of all so called nurture syndrome pathology, further leading to 'off /bad' snowballs.)
...We need bigger bombs. And then "IT" [unleashing of said] needs to be done like a thief in the night (no debate no dialogue).
Or the neo cortex dies. [Peeshah: shrug-- it's that simple.]
And it aint just america.
Philip Longman at the New America Foundation seems to think immigration could slow because Latin American birthrates are falling fast. Mexico is now 2.0 probably because the fertile are moving to the US for freebies.
The hard thing for Americans, not just liberals, to accept is a permanent underclass. We had such a long ride of social mobility without the overt class system denying capable people the opportunity for success. Now just natural forces will mean that groups will linger at the bottom.
"We are still trying to figure out what genes are involved in intelligence, which is harder than it sounds, and putting those genes in a human is also no trivial task."
Mild disagreement with you there. Not only is the "task" easy, it is fun.
I have a cute, cute neighbor. Very smart. She and her hubby had a great time cooking up five, smart, curious little boys.
Like smart kids? Like to piss off liberals? Need someone to take care of you when you are old and the NAMs have cheated you out of your Social Security? How about hatching five or ten of your own?
Like I said, mild disagreement. Putting the genes in those little people is the trivial task since you are the custodian of those genes.
The genius whites who decided to turn America into a welfare state beginning in the early part of the last century have ensured that the United States isn't going to be around in 2050. Therefore it doesn't make a lot of sense to worry about the fact that mean IQ is going to drop by 5 points or so from when the US was majority white. It has been the predominantly white led federal, state and local governments that have passed most of the idiotic legislation in this country, destroyed the currency of the country, and run up amazing levels of debt. Yeah, white people are real smart.
This is what the United States has taught us about putting white people in charge (and Europe as well): it takes white people about a century to utterly ruin their economies, whereas a Latin American country can do it in a couple of decades. So, yes, I suppose a mean IQ difference of about 5 or so can lead to an extra half century of prosperity before the inevitable decline. And it still means that those white majority populations will vote in the likes of George Bush and Barack Obama. Yep, white people like politicians every bit as dumb as they are. I mean the white people that didn't vote for those two guys voted for Gore, Kerry and McCain. Yeah, I feel secure living amongst a land of genius white people that vote for politicians who are clearly mentally handicapped.
So really, what is the functional difference going to be between a country of dumb white people and a country of dumb Mexicans? There might be a small net advantage actually insofar as Mexicans don't like to fight wars with functionally retarded Arabs and Afghanis. That means savings on the defense budget. Only a white person would have the idiotic idea of sending hundreds of thousands of their most capable, virile young men across the world to fight a country of actual retards who live in caves and have sex with animals. White have to own their genius war ideas. In fact whites are so smart that they can't even manage to start a war with the country that attacked them--Saudi Arabia. If you're brilliant leaders cannot even figure out the correct country to respond to after an attack, well, you pretty much deserve to be overtaken. And then when they do manage to take over the wrong country, they can't even manage to take over the resources. More white genius on display.
Whites are just another dumb critter among a lot of other dumb human critters. At least when the Mexicans take over I can get some decent mole.
You guys think the less than 70IQ crowd causes the most damage?! You're ignorant, then. Less than 70IQ and they need to be cared for by others. Most of the criminals are in the 80-95IQ range. There will be MUCH MORE in this range in the future, and MUCH LESS people greater than 120IQ. There's no correlation between an IQ greater than 120 and genius capabilities. Anyways, I assume dysgenics will start to be quite noticeable soon. After all the GM foods introduced 15 years ago, and now all of this nano-tech going into the environment, we're all about to get a lot stranger!
My IQ is a couple sd's over norm and I already have troubles dealing with these idiots. I plan on moving our of the U.S. before marrying and raising kids. This place is a slum in progress.
Anonymous said...
***Your estimate for average Hispanic IQ assume a population of average intelligence Hispanics. Many who leave their country of origin are among the lower IQ in their group which is part of the reason they can't figure out how to prosper in their nation. Illegal immigrants are especially at the lower end of the Hispanic IQ curve.***
I am pretty sure you are spot on here. The mass importation of low IQ Hispanics (Central American / Caribs & Mexicans) and Increasingly Africans into the US, is to ultimately going crack the cohesiveness of a nation. The Elites (powers that be) would find it FAR easier to control a Giant Brazil (USA) than a cohesive integrated and United Country wich America once was i the 1950's-60's.
We need a major time-out on Immigration both in the US and Europe.... with an eventual push to more moral/family values... That won't happen until the Sh*t really hits the fan.. The Economy is on life-supports... the decade will be interesting times!
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